Calculations and models

Sector-specific calculations and scenario results are mainly based on the calculations and models of expert organisations. Chapter 5.8 of Finland’s sixth national communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change includes short descriptions of the methods and models.

The main sources of information used in drafting the scenarios that fall under the responsibility of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment (MEAE) include national energy statistics published by Statistics Finland, Eurostat energy statistics, and the national greenhouse gas inventory. Other statistics published by, for example, Finnish Energy (ET), National Resources Institute Finland, Finnish Petroleum and Biofuels Association and other associations and interest groups are also used extensively.

When projecting future developments within its own area of responsibility, the MEAE also employs various other reports (e.g. National Energy Efficiency Action Plan and the related reports), research results, studies and assessments. Some of the reports are commissioned for the formulation of scenarios, and others have been drawn up in other projects carried out by different ministries or operators. Such reports and projections are drawn up by, for example, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Finnish Environment Institute, National Resources Institute Finland, VATT Institute for Economic Research, Motiva, Adato, and various consultancies and universities.

The MEAE compiles the results and data it has produced and received from other ministries, calculating the overall energy balance and the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions. In the task, the MEAE uses Excel spreadsheets, producing energy consumption per sector, the structures of energy supply and various key figures, such as the share of renewable energy in final consumption. The data only cover Finland.

Cost calculations and environmental impacts are assessed separately from the above-mentioned Excel spreadsheet exercise. These examinations are performed by expert organisations, such as VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, VATT Institute for Economic Research, and the Finnish Environment Institute. Information on the studies and reports used to formulate scenarios for the 2013 energy and climate strategy are included in the reference list of the strategy background report.