Forecast: Finland’s labour market to improve from the beginning of 2026
The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment’s labour market forecast for spring 2025 predicts that employment will grow next year, but the number of long-term unemployed people threatens to rise to a very high level.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment released its short-term labour market forecast on 20 May 2025. The forecast extends until the end of 2027.
Economic uncertainty has delayed the change for the better in the labour market, which was expected to happen this year. According to the labour market forecast, employment will grow in 2026 and the number of unemployed jobseekers will start to decline. Employment will improve further in 2027.
The forecast suggests that the employment rate of the working-age population (15–64-year-olds) will fall by 0.5 percentage points this year and be 71.6 per cent on average. However, it is expected to rise to 72 per cent next year and further to 72.2 per cent in 2027.
Supply of labour to increase
The amount of workforce will grow as immigration increases and more and more older people participate in the labour market.
As a result of the growing labour force, the number of unemployed people is expected to decrease only slowly in the next few years. According to the forecast, the average number of unemployed jobseekers in employment services will be 323,000 this year, and 319,000 and 305,000 in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Long-term unemployment to keep growing
The number of long-term unemployed people is growing rapidly at the moment, and the outlook shows no immediate turn for the better. As per the forecast, the number of long-term unemployed persons will total 136,000 at the end of this year and grow to an average of 140,000 persons next year.
The number of unemployed jobseekers aged under 25 is predicted to fall quicker than the number of the unemployed in other age groups. In addition, the number of people temporarily laid-off full-time is expected to decrease in the next few years.
Key forecast results:
| Year | 2025* | 2026* | 2027* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rate 20–64-year-olds | 75,8 % | 76,5 % | 76,9 % |
| Employment rate 15–64-year-olds | 71,6 % | 71,8 % | 72,2 % |
| Employed people 15–74-year-olds | 2 596 000 | 2 616 000 | 2 642 000 |
| Unemployment rate | 9,1 % | 9,0 % | 8,4 % |
| Labour force participation rate | 68,6 % | 68,8 % | 68,8 % |
| Unemployed jobseekers | 323 000 | 319 000 | 305 000 |
| Long-term unemployed people | 125 000 | 140 000 | 142 000 |
| Young unemployed people | 37 000 | 37 000 | 34 000 |
What is the labour market forecast?
The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment produces a short-term labour market forecast twice a year. It is based on a statistical time-series analysis. It makes use of Statistics Finland’s Labour Force Survey, Employment Service Statistics, national account statistics, demographic statistics and forecast, the Finnish Immigration Service’s statistics, and the Ministry of Finance’s economic forecast.
Inquiries:
Liisa Larja, Senior Specialist, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, tel. +358 50 400 7352 (labour demand, employment and sectors)
Erno Mähönen, Senior Specialist, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, tel. +358 50 433 3472 (unemployment and labour supply)
Juho Peltonen, Senior Specialist, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, tel. +358 295 047 119 (immigration)